Will there be an attempt of a large-scale Russian offensive by 2026?
9
200αΉ€735
2026
80%
chance

Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Russia is taking more casualties per day from a meat grinding offensive than they have at any point in the war. This should resolve to Yes. It's difficult to know what would qualify more as a large offensive than sustained assaults on Ukrainian positions with the highest casualties of the war.

How would you distinguish between an attempt that went nowhere and no attempt?

@42irrationalist If in media there will be words about such an offensive (whether it went nowhere or not), it will count as an attempt

@V_L IMO, this is very vague. What media will you accept? What counts as a large-scale?

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Terms + Mana-only Termsβ€’Privacyβ€’Rules