Make this market again, but make it with reference to the particular academy award it has any chance with:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Award_for_Best_Animated_Short_Film

Anyone considering YES should seriously try to have GPT-4 write a comment on LinkedIn that's more than 4 sentences long and doesn't feel "bleh". Then look at the work that went into the Sudoku challenge:

Then think to yourself; will people invest enough to do something 1,000x more complex? Will it then be lucky enough to win?

I might consider YES if the criteria was "conditional on the US startin another Manhattan Project (in terms of budget and technical talent, PLUS unprecedented artistic talent) with the sole purpose of making an AI-movie-machine which could, by some measures, be considered Oscar-quality". But there are a million things standing between "possible" and "pragmatic in less than a decade"

@MatthewRitter i just had a thought:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Award_for_Best_Animated_Short_Film

If it was suitably appealing to the academy and self referential and remarked on AI happenings yet to happen, at the right moment, it could have a chance

I think there's an interesting proposition about AI itself in the title. Midjourney takes prompts and makes images, but it never makes images without prompts.

So even if this magical AI can do literally everything in a Hollywood blockbuster from a single prompt, then go on to win an academy award... It still took it's instruction from a Mira's soduku solve in 2023 level of sophistication of a prompt, it never made it entirely by itself and it would still need to have a director in the credits that was not itself

This market resolves No.