Will self-driving cars account for more than 50% of all vehicles on the road in any country by 2025? | Manifold

Will self-driving cars account for more than 50% of all vehicles on the road in any country by 2025?

Plus

28

Ṁ1913

Jan 2

3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Self-Driving Vehicles

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Could you define “self driving car” in more detail?

SAE level 3? Level 4? What current technology counts (Waymo, Tesla Autopilot, Mercedes Drive Pilot, GM SuperCruise, …)?

@marktwse This is part of a series of AI-generated questions, so my bad for not providing better definitions. I'll use cars that have received legal approval (I won't be picky about from which country) to act at SAE level 3. This is not my area of expertise, but a quick search says this would include cars with Mercedes' drive pilot but not Tesla's.

Outside the very slim chance a tiny nation acts as a spoiler, I don't see this as resolving as Y, and don't plan on leaving anyone holding the bag on some weird technicality. Chat GPT chose an unrealistically bullish date.

@VerySeriousPoster I can see a small nation, meeting the Yes requirement. Will any country make you resolve to Yes, or do you exclude some countries?

@GazDownright Nah, every nation is on the table. If it's recognized by the UN as a member, or if the Great Arbiter of Truth (Wikipedia) describes it as a country, I'll count it. Which means that the Vatican, Singapore, Taiwan, and (most excitingly) Kosovo all count.

Related questions

Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

-3% 1d17% chance

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?

Related questions

Will Tesla serve more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?

Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules