Will Paul Christiano consider ELK unsolvable by the end of 2024?
Plus
19
Ṁ1069Dec 31
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market will resolve YES if Paul Christiano publicly announces that he considers ELK to be unsolvable (e.g. in a forum post) on or before 31/12/2024 23:59 PST, resolves NO otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will chess be solved by 2040?
21% chance
Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?
72% chance
Will the worst-case ELK problem be solved by Oct 20, 2026?
10% chance
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
39% chance
Will chess be solved by 2100?
28% chance
Will >50% of the tasks in the WebArena benchmark be solved by EOY 2024?
62% chance
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
40% chance
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?
28% chance
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
42% chance
Will language models solve cryptic crosswords by end of 2026?
73% chance