Will the result of this prediction be "no"?
Basic
8
Ṁ73Feb 19
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Asking the hard questions.
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@Vilksian Not sure if it’s related or not, but I opened a more complex version of this questions yesterday. The difference is that if you ask it this plainly, the equilibrium is at exactly 50% with no actual range for profits. In my version there’s a range in the middle that makes this paradox even more fun to contemplate :)
https://manifold.markets/JosephS/by-the-end-of-this-month-chatgpt-wi?r=Sm9zZXBoUw