Will Donald Trump assert an insanity or diminished capacity defense in any of his criminal cases by December 31, 2025?
Plus
36
Ṁ33172026
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
• Yes: The market will resolve to “Yes” if there is verifiable evidence that Donald Trump’s legal team has formally filed an insanity or diminished capacity defense in court by the specified date.
• Acceptable sources include official court documents, statements from his legal team, or reports from reputable news outlets confirming the filing.
• No: The market will resolve to “No” if no such defense is filed by December 31, 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he serve time in 2025?
2% chance
Will Donald Trump be the President of the USA on December 31, 2025?
92% chance
Will Trump be held under house arrest at Trump Tower at any point before 2025?
29% chance
If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, will any of his criminal cases get dropped by the end of the year?
50% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will Donald Trump spend any time in prison before 2030?
26% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2029?
25% chance
Will the U. S. President pardon Donald Trump by February 2025?
24% chance
Will Trump get sentenced for any of the 34 felonies he was found guilty of before January 20, 2025?
47% chance
Will Trumps defense lawyers argue he is not competent to stand trial due to age/dementia/etc if he loses the election?
37% chance