Conditional on Trump getting reelected in 2024, will he show signs of age-related mental decline at any time before Jan 6 2029.
I will try to use external sources. For example, if there is widespread media discussion about his age.
Clarifications:
1) If Trump is not reelected in 2024, this resolves N/A
2) If Trump is re-elected but does not end his second term (e.g. because he is impeached and removed from office), this resolves to whether there is significant discussion of age-related decline by when his term would have ended (Jan 6th 2029). If there is no discussion because he is out of the public eye by then, this will resolve No.
3) If he experiences mental decline as a result of a disease that is much more likely in old age (e.g. Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s), this will resolve Yes.
4) I will generally go by whether there is significant media arguments, with heavier weight on publications I consider to be more politically neutral (e.g. The Economist, WSJ, WaPo, NYT to a lesser extent), and much lower weight on publications that I consider more partisan (e.g. The Guardian, MSNBC, Fox, Vox, etc.).
Just by watching any interview of the man from ~80s should be evidence clear enough that there has been significant mental decline.
A couple of data points on the consensus:
His inability to form concise sentences instead of stream of consciousness is something that is extremely commonly joked about.
With regards to commentary on his mental decline he has continuously bragged about getting administered and passing the MoCA test, which is meant to gauge very severe impairment to cognitive function. The test includes tasks like drawing a clock and identifying pictures of animals.
Dementia typically develops in people older than 65. Trump is 78. Signs of dementia aren’t as pronounced in many people, though.
Trump fell asleep on stage @ NATO meeting in 2017! Incoherent speeches without teleprompter. Can’t read teleprompter. Can’t put together a cohesive thought to ACTUALLY answer a question. THE LACK OF “significant consensus” [from media] is a form of confirmation bias. Recall Hillary (years YOUNGER than Trump) had a fainting spell & was deemed not “healthy” enough to run. No need to take side to clearly see the reporting bias.