Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030
Basic
7
Ṁ2192031
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution here is purely based on my personal judgement, though if someone wants to try and sway that judgement with empirical evidence that will probably be very effective.
Twitter thread that encapsulates my claim here:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will there be an AI CEO by 2040?
51% chance
Will an AI SWE model score higher than 50% on SWE-bench in 2024?
20% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
14% chance
Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
31% chance
Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?
37% chance
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
75% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
80% chance
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
39% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2025?
11% chance