Will SF homelessness rates be higher in 2025 than in 2022
Mini
10
Ṁ400
2026
65%
chance

Datasource for homelessness will be https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population

Datasource for population will be https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23130/san-francisco/population or equivalant

2022: 7754/3,318,000 = .2%

I will resolve at the end of 2025 so that I can use whatever population data seems most accurate/authoritative at the time.

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I'm tentatively suspicious that there is some way for SF to minimize point in time homelessness counts in order to counter the media narrative, even if actual homelessness hasn't declined.

I have no idea how they would do this, but it seems there is a strong incentive for SF to show declining homelessness rates over the next few years.

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