What Jobs Will Grow At Least 5% by 2032? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
28
Ṁ1016
2033
87%
Registered nurses
76%
Athletes and sports competitors
76%
Health specialties teachers, postsecondary
70%
Clinical and counseling psychologists
69%
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers
63%
Electricians
62%
Dentists, general
59%
Computer programmers
56%
Data Scientist
55%
Software developers
50%
Physical Therapists
40%
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers
34%
Real estate sales agents
Resolved
N/A
Plumbing, electrical, and carpentry work [47-3000]
Resolved
N/A
Doctors
Resolved
N/A
Video producer
Resolved
N/A
Teachers
Resolved
N/A
Priest/Imam/Spiritual guide

Before adding responses, please ensure they are in the BLS National Employment Matrix. Only job title line items listed here qualify.

This prediction market investigates the employment landscape of 2032, focusing on specific occupations that continue to be performed by humans amidst technological advancements. The assessment will utilize data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), specifically from the detailed occupations listed in the BLS National Employment Matrix.

Resolution Criteria

  • YES: This outcome will be selected if any specific occupation listed as a line item (e.g., "Software Developer") in the BLS National Employment Matrix shows a growth of over 5% between 2022 and 2032. This growth rate indicates that the occupation is not declining relative to population growth, signifying a sustained or increasing demand for human workers in that role.

  • NO: This outcome will be chosen if the specific line item occupations in the BLS National Employment Matrix exhibit a growth rate below 5% in the given timeframe, implying a decrease or stagnation in human-operated roles due to automation or other factors.

  • N/A: This option applies if the BLS data for the specified period is unavailable, incomplete, or inconclusive; if the occupation titles do not fit the specific line item format (e.g., generalized titles like "Software and web developers, programmers, and testers"); or if unforeseen circumstances render the question irrelevant or unanswerable by the end of 2032.

Resolution Time

This question resolves in June of 2033 to ensure there is time for the BLS to gather data from 2032.

Edits

Here you can find edits to categories in order to make the resolution criteria clear. Please remember to double check that the item you're adding appears as a line item in the BLS table.

  • Title: What Jobs Will Grow At Least 5% Humans Still Perform by 2032? (Thanks to @pietrokc for the title revision suggestion)

  • Athletes Athletes and sports competitors

  • Real estate [sales] agent[s]

  • Airline pilots, [copilots, and flight engineers]

  • Software and web developers

  • Athletes [and sports competitors]

Resolutions

N/A

  • Plumbing, electrical, and carpentry work

This is a summary item, not an individual profession listed in the BLS data. These three can be listed separately.

  • Priest/Imam/Spiritual guide

This is a summary item, not an individual profession listed in the BLS data.

  • Teachers

This is a summary item, not an individual profession listed in the BLS data. Individual teachers (e.g., Secondary school teachers, except special and career/technical education) can be listed separately.

  • Video producer

Not in the BLS data.

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any particular reason data scientists are below programmers?

@RafalPastuszak data and AI are closely related while programming and logic are closely related i guess?

@Ernie really cool market!

Doctors

Please note that job titles like this will resolve N/A. The criteria is "any specific occupation listed as a line item (e.g., "Software Developer") in the BLS National Employment Matrix." Look under "occupation type" to find which ones are considered line items, and which are summaries.

This is to make resolution easier, otherwise people could point to one particular doctor (e.g., Oral and maxillofacial surgeons) and say because this has increased, "Doctors" as a whole should resolve YES.

The title of this market is misleading; it should be something like "jobs which will grow at least as much as population growth".

Also, there are a lot of reasons the number of people doing a job could fail to increase by 5%, which are not "AIs now do the job".

@pietrokc That's fair, I've changed the title to more accurately reflect the resolution criteria.

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