Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
Plus
16
Ṁ445Jan 1
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.
Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030. (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c). Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
36% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
33% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
54% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
56% chance
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
38% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
79% chance
IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
47% chance
Will Iran reach the 'weapons-grade' uranium enrichment threshold before 2025?
28% chance
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
40% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?
2% chance