Will Trump receive at least 45% of the nonwhite vote in 2024?
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8%
chance
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1W
1M
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Based on the infographic in this post: https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support
Considering only the two-party vote. I think Catalist is the best source for demographic breakdowns after the election, as exit polls have high margins of error.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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