Will at least 500,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2024?
Plus
12
Ṁ9129Dec 15
1.3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If you're trading in this market, consider also helping me understand this market's likely biases: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/how-much-do-traders-discount-my-mar
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.
https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/
Related questions
Related questions
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will 10,000 people die of H5N1 before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?
26% chance
Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024?
24% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 worldwide cases of human infection by HPAI H5N1 before 2025?
4% chance
When will the US H5N1 human case count surpass 100?
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024?
19% chance
Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US by the end of 2025?
50% chance