Hi @strutheo , it would be great if you could run another version of this that is for the end of 2025!

@SpencerGreenberg consider it done

@SpencerGreenberg https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-there-be-100-or-more-human-cas-dItlZpthlz?play=true

will add some more number thresholds for 2025 too

@SpencerGreenberg https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-there-be-a-largescale-bird-flu-810463cb11ad

@strutheo Thank you! :)

@strutheo Yeah, it would be great to also have one for 1000 and 10000 people or something along those lines!

Anywhere I can get monthly data for human cases? Seems like the link only provides information about livestock herds... unless I'm reading it wrong

@SaiVazquez The link in the description provides the total number of human cases. I've not found a monthly breakdown anywhere though - use the web archive, maybe?

Bird flu jumps from birds to human in Louisiana; patient hospitalized - Ars Technica

@JonathanNankivell Not a perfect arb, beware

@JonathanNankivell I'm pretty sure that one should be lower - the CDC uses slightly stricter criteria. Their current count is 60, while the dashboard for this market is at 65.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Agreed. Afaict only three combinations are possible as the CDC number should be lower than that on Tableau

The dashboard shows 64 human cases, but the official CDC count is 58.

They mention six other cases that met a lower standard, which probably explains the discrepancy: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

@Manifold @strutheo The question is cases in the US, as reflected by the dashboard, correct?

@snazzlePop yeah that was my interpretation based on the source, will clarify in the title and desc.

sweepified!

61 human cases