Will China and the Philippines have a conflict in the South China Sea that results in at least one death before 2025?
Basic
31
Ṁ1.8k2025
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
It seems like things are escalating: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/asia/philippines-footage-south-china-sea-clash-china-intl-hnk/index.html
I suspect the shoal desperately needs resupply of construction equipment
Related questions
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?
74% chance
Will there be a collision between Filipino and Chinese navy vessels by the end of 2024?
70% chance
Will China escalate it’s claim to the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea before the end of 2025?
67% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
35% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?
51% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
42% chance