Background

In October 2023, Venezuela agreed to accept deportation flights from the United States for the first time since 2019, despite strained diplomatic relations. This agreement came as part of broader negotiations between the two countries, which included discussions about U.S. sanctions relief. The U.S. does not officially recognize Maduro as Venezuela's legitimate president.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• Nicolas Maduro's government continues to accept deportation flights of Venezuelan nationals from the U.S. through the end of 2027

• The current agreement remains in effect without significant interruption

This market will resolve NO if:

• Maduro's government formally withdraws from the deportation agreement

• Venezuela consistently refuses to accept deportation flights for a period longer than 30 days

• Maduro is no longer in power before 2028

• Maduro places an upper limit on the number of migrant deportations he will accept

Considerations

• The continuation of this agreement may be influenced by various factors including U.S. sanctions policy, diplomatic relations, and domestic political conditions in Venezuela

• The agreement could be affected by changes in U.S. administration following the 2024 presidential election

• Venezuela's economic situation and its ability to handle returned migrants may impact the sustainability of the agreement