Will the US knowingly deport at least one citizen to El Salvador for imprisonment by EOY2025?
8
100Ṁ200
Dec 31
31%
chance

1. A US citizen must be physically transferred by US authorities to El Salvador with the knowledge and intent that the person will be imprisoned there.

2. The individual must have been a US citizen at the time of deportation, as verified by government records, birth certificate, passport, or other official documentation.

3. The deportation must be carried out by an official US government agency (such as ICE, CBP, or another federal entity) acting in an official capacity.

4. "Intentionally" means the US government must have known the person was a US citizen at the time of deportation, not cases where citizenship was discovered after deportation.

5. "For imprisonment" means the person must be placed in a detention facility, jail, or prison in El Salvador upon arrival, not merely deported and later imprisoned for separate actions.

6. The imprisonment must be part of the explicit or documented purpose of the deportation, not an incidental outcome.

7. This criterion excludes extraditions carried out under formal legal treaties for crimes committed in El Salvador.

8. The event must be documented by credible sources such as court records, official government statements, verified news reports from major outlets, or human rights organization reports.

9. Temporary transfers for questioning that do not result in imprisonment do not qualify.

10. The deportation and imprisonment must occur before December 31st, 2025, 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

How would we ever know if 4 was the case?

@MingCat El Salvador offered to take our violent citizen prisoners at the beginning of the administration.

bought Ṁ5 YES

What if it's for an offense unrelated to immigration?

@BenM That's what I was imagining. El Salvador offered to take our violent prisoners for a small fee at the beginning of the administration.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules