In honor of Keith Rabois' prediction on Twitter (and inspired by Polymarket):
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump wins each of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.
this will resolve YES but description gives very specific criteria which will follow:
Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.
AP has not called several of these states yet
@dieselbaby1337 honestly no idea how this works i thought they had linked close dates but apparently mods can reopen sweeps without reopening mana? in any case, i wouldn't reopen the mana version now that there's nothing predictive left
@Ziddletwix well, regardless, it needs to settle, doesn't it? I'm still waiting for this to resolve and I can't do anything with the mana I have on here, it won't let me. If for nothing else than the pure bragging rights for getting this correct buying "Yes" at 31%
Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.
Nate Silver puts the odds at 29.0% https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
@Quroe fair questionโI don't think certifying is as important when it's just about the winner, and not the margin. So I will borrow the resolution criteria used for the prez market:
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
(to be clear, I have no control over the sweepstakes version of this market, that ain't mine, and it's entirely up to manifold how they choose to resolve that)