Which EXACT combination of the 7 swing states will Trump win?

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Ṁ10k

Nov 5

19%

Wins all 7

19%Other

18%

Loses only WI, MI, & PA (wins the other 4)

18%

Wins only AZ, GA, & NC (loses the other 4)

15%

Loses all 7

Loses only WI & MI (wins the other 5)

Wins only AZ (loses the other 6)

1.4%

Loses only MI (wins the other 6)

1.2%

Loses only NV (wins the other 6)

The 7 "swing states" are: Arizona (AZ), Georgia (GA), North Carolina (NC), Nevada (NV), Pennsylvania (PA), Michigan (MI), & Wisconsin (WI).

You can add options, but they must specify a unique combination of states (& I may edit the wording).

Resolves according to the AP call for each state.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Geopolitics

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this market only requires the AP call but looks like the AP hasn't called AZ & NV

bought Ṁ150 Loses only WI, MI, &... NO

From Nate as of 10/22:

Wins all 7 - 24.4%
Loses only WI, MI, & PA (wins the other 4) - 2.2%
Loses all 7 - 15.3%
Wins only AZ, GA, & NC (loses the other 4) - 2.9%
Loses only NV (wins the other 6) - 4.6%
Loses only WI & MI (wins the other 5) - 1.9%
Wins only AZ (loses the other 6) - 3.4%
Wins only AZ & NV (loses the other 5) - 1.9%
Loses only WI (wins the other 6) - 2.6%
Loses only MI (wins the other 6) - 1.9%
Loses only NC (wins the other 6) - 0.5%

@BoltonBailey Also, arb with this other market with dozens of alternatives 😂

bought Ṁ20 Loses all 7 YES

I put a little on both wins all 7 and loses all 7. Am thinking that the states are correlated enough that both sweep percentages should be even higher.

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