By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? | Manifold

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

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14

Ṁ110

2027

36%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Yes: There is at least one publicly reported instance.

No: There are no publicly reported instances.

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And what would qualify as an AI cybersecurity system? Does it have to be trained specifically for cybersecurity? Deployed originally for cybersecurity uses? Does a generalist model with cybersecurity capabilities count?

Would a contained experiment count, like e.g. Anthropic doing model organisms of misalignment or ARC evals creating a concrete demonstration? Or does it have to be "in the wild"?

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By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Related questions

By the end of 2024, will there be a major security vulnerability reported to be caused by AI generated code?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Will a replicating AI take over the Replit cloud by EOY 24?

Will AI spread through malware before 2025?

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2024?

Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

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