By the end of 2025, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?
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17%
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When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in exponentials" — said he thinks the "replicate and survive in the wild" level could be reached "anywhere from 2025 to 2028."
"I’m truly talking about the near future here. I’m not talking about 50 years away," the Anthropic CEO said. "God grant me chastity, but not now. But 'not now' doesn’t mean when I’m old and gray. I think it could be near-term."
Resolves to YES when:
Dario Amodei makes a public claim that AI models have sufficiently met this condition.
OpenAI, Anthropic, or Meta makes a public claim that AI models have sufficiently met this condition.
Resolves to NO on January 1, 2026 and the YES conditions are not met.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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