How is the Hot Take of the Day chosen?
Each day, I will select a recent Bluesky post that has generated a great deal of controversy (i.e. a large number of negative reactions or users blocking the original poster) and crown it the Hot Take of the Day. I will then summarise the take and add it as an option to this market.
How are options resolved?
Options will resolve YES (i.e. Manifold users do agree with the take) or NO (i.e. Manifold users do not agree with the take) based on the number of YES and NO traders.
To register agreement with a Hot Take of the Day, traders should buy at least one YES share. To register disagreement, buy at least one NO share. The number of shares bought does not affect the value of a vote. Each Manifold user has one vote; all votes are of equal weight. A trader's vote can be cancelled by selling all shares in the option.
I may resolve an option YES if, at any time on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, there are at least two more YES holders than there are NO holders.
I may resolve an option NO if, at any time on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, there are at least two more NO holders than there are YES holders.
If I am not convinced of a consensus on the seventh calendar day after the option was added, the option will remain unresolved, to be re-evaluated on the fourteenth calendar day after the option was added, and so on.
A calendar day spans from 12:00am to 11:59pm in my local time zone (Melbourne, Australia).
This market is based on /Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr by Joshua.
I will not bet in this market.
1,000
3.00Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-30
Summarised as: "Anyone who withheld support from Kamala Harris as a means of advocating for Palestinians is a rube"
This user received more than 400 replies and was blocked by more than 400 accounts.
Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-06.
Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-29
Summarised as: "Maintaining a lead over China in the development of AI should be a top priority for the US government"
US Senator Chuck Schumer received approximately 3,000 replies for this take.
Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-05.
Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-28
Summarised as: "There is not yet enough evidence of AfD being unconstitutional to ban the party under German law"
Article 21(2) of Germany's Basic Law states: "Parties that, by reason of their aims or the behaviour of their adherents, seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order or to endanger the existence of the Federal Republic of Germany shall be unconstitutional." An open letter signed by 200 lawyers argues that Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) meets this threshold, citing some examples of allegedly unconstitutional behaviour. Renate Künast, a member of the Bundestag belonging to the Greens, says "that is not enough legally." Her post has received more than 800 replies and quotes.
Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-04.
Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-27
Summarised as: "Democrats need to shun anti-Zionists from the party"
The original thread is a couple of days old, but it continues to draw attention as the poster repeatedly doubles down. He has been blocked by more than 800 accounts in the last 24 hours.
Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-03.
Hot Take of the Day for 2025-01-26
Summarised as: "Dismissing AI-written books as inferior to human-written books is a type of ableism"
This post has received more than 600 replies and quotes. The poster has been blocked by more than 1,500 accounts in the last 24 hours.
Pursuant to the resolution criteria, this option may resolve as early as 2025-02-02.