Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050? | Manifold

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

Plus

40

Ṁ6502

2049

18%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.

See also:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ AI Alignment

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Should be higher than linked 2040 market

It's interesting that this market is at 27% and the market on >50% of the population dying for any reason is only at 8%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?

Related questions

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2600?

Related questions

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2600?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules