Will Giving What We Can reach 10,000 active 10% pledges in 2024?
21
Ṁ1220
Dec 31
32%
chance

Resolves based on the number under "Lifetime members" at https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/about-us/members, which is 8,850 as of market creation on 28th April 2024.

Fake pledges or other attempts at manipulation won't be counted, according to the best of my judgment.

#GiveWell
#Charity
#Donations
#Giving What We Can
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
5 Comments
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bought Ṁ50 NO

If I understand @PatMyron's graph right (from EA Forum), GWWC added 300 pledgers in H1 2024. Another 300 pledgers in H2 would bring them to ~9300, so they'll need an extra ~700.

Best of luck!

As an aside, this graph strikes me as a really good proxy measure for "EA influence over time"

It seems to me to be a combination of "EA influence over time" and "idiosyncratic shifts in what GWWC does" and there's plenty of the latter

I think the latter only started up in the last year or two; my sense is that GWWC, while having been around for a long time, recently went through some management changes/started staffing up and I now think they're live players in the space. So I wouldn't be that surprised if they do manage to drive many more pledges!

bought Ṁ10 YES

Relevantly, this is an explicit goal that they have, and they've recently started launching partnerships with other organisations with a goal of accelerating their growth. See e.g. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uZzXRyAwkDHLfu94W/we-ve-renamed-the-giving-what-we-can-pledge

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