
Will Japan gain de facto control of Shikotan island (one of the Kuril islands) from Russia before 2031?
13
1kṀ4142031
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shikotan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute
In the event of controversy I will let a council of mods decide.
I think if Japan gains de facto control of the island for less than a week and it's obvious that it's going back to Russia later then that doesn't count. But if it's longer than that, then it does. I don't know how I would resolve if Japan gains control of the island for what seems like an indefinite period of time but ends up only lasting six days. I guess I would resolve to 50%. Hopefully there won't be a difficult edge case like that.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia control Pokrovsk by May 31st, 2025
28% chance
Will Japan control Sakhalin on Jan 1st 2032?
9% chance
Will Japan regain control over some or all of the contested Kuril islands by 2028?
6% chance
Will Russia control Sakhalin on Jan 1st 2034?
71% chance
Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
40% chance
Will Russia control Kaliningrad on Jan 1st 2031?
86% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
27% chance
Will Russia control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2033?
85% chance
Will Russia lose any part of Outer Manchuria by 2035?
20% chance
Will Russia control Irkutsk on Jan 1st 2032?
80% chance