This question resolves based on my reactions to his behavior. If I am at all shocked by Donald Trump's behavior, actions or statements by the end of 2024, I will resolve this market as YES. If not, I will resolve this market as NO at the end of the year.
Examples of surprising behavior:
Sincerely apologizing for anything
Speaking for 30 minutes without rambling
Speaking for 30 minutes without lying
Dropping out of the 2024 election
Not trying to cook up another election tampering scheme
Admitting that his weird running mate is probably more qualified to be president than he is
Publicly telling his children that he loves them (except Ivanka)
I will not be placing any bets on this market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI&t=666s
I don't feel like I've ever heard him say "I lost" referring to the 2020 election. If it's not corrected by the campaign, I found this at least a little bit surprising.
@Thorr "by a whisker". He spent around 10 minutes of that 40 minute interview talking about how the election was stolen from him. He even calls his loss a coup. To clarify, I don't think Trump is delusional in every sense. He believes the electoral college system has vulnerabilities candidates can exploit in a close election, because it does. He thinks his supporters are stupid enough to send him money to fight a "stolen election" fantasy, because they are.
He's not generally a good liar and slips enough that I didn't find this admission surprising.
His age and diet alone would make dying of natural causes or an overdose of stimulants unsurprising but death by suicide would be surprising.
Yes, I count any surprising behavior or language, good or bad.
I have only been genuinely surprised by Trump once. When he used the words "enemy of the people" to describe the press in his first week as president. I interpreted his previous attacks on the press as vanity and interpreted all future attacks as ambition for dictatorial power. Under that framing, most of his language and behavior has been unsurprising and almost boringly predictable because while he is a student of historical and contemporary dictators he's not a very creative person.
It would surprise me if he decided, at any point before the election, to coordinate his militia forces and launch a first strike attack against the federal government, unless it looked like he had very little chance to win the election. I would consider a first strike attack either a second attempt to take Washington or the support of a secessionist state. If he loses the election, any of this behavior will not surprise me.
I expect his language to contain subtle to overt misogyny and racism. I expect him to continue to verbally attack the press, the federal government, immigrants and minorities.
How about if he sexually assaulted someone or beat someone bloody with his bare hands while on camera? There are various terrible things I've been worried he might escalate to ever since he rose to prominence but the fact he hasn't done any of them this past decade kinda makes me wonder if my fears are overblown lol
Yes, beating someone bloody with his bare hands would surprise me because I don't think he has the physical strength to kill most people with his bare hands and because he has shown that he's disgusted by the sight of other people's blood.
I think he's capable of killing but he seems to be more comfortable with other people killing for him.
He's not Vlad the Impaler.