What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Plus

172

Ṁ29k

Jan 1

98%

Post a Tweet

97%

Deny Climate Change

97%

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

95%

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

91%

Exercise

86%

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

83%

Increase US oil production

83%

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

81%

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

80%

Enrich himself & his family financially

78%

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

75%

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

69%

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

68%

Shake hands with Putin

68%

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

65%

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

65%

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

58%

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

57%

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

51%

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Feel free to add answers. Everything resolves N/A if he loses the 2024 presidential election.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Trump

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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28 Comments

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@traders Another market limited to the first 100 days can be found here:

bought Ṁ10 NO

@VNetChrome If his net worth is lower when he is out of office does this resolve NO?

@Shai his family needs to be included given proven past and not to distance history

@VNetChrome Ehh too subjective for me then unless we know exactly which family members. His net worth went down during the first term so I thought it was overvalued.

@JakeLowery Golf counts as exercise right?

@SentientTree Not up to me at this point I guess! But for what it’s worth as framing, intent, I would say only if he carries his own bags

How does resolution work for this kind of market? For instance, I added an answer.. Am I now responsible for deciding the resolution?

@Siebe No the market creator will resolve, or failing that, the mods.

Currently at 43%

@AndrewG hamnhrb?

@AndrewG What would happen if he orders a covfefe?

@KarlK Does continuing US support for the campaign in Gaza count here?

sold Ṁ49 YES

@SentientTree i.e. whose authority to we defer to in deciding what is or isn't a genocide?

bought Ṁ5 YES

This is a good clarifying question. Perhaps we could refer to a Wikipedia page?

@AndrewG Trump seems to have the opposite stance: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/11/trump-victory-signals-major-shakeup-for-us-ai-regulations/

bought Ṁ50 NO

@KarlK Do mostly peaceful protesters count?

Needs more traders :)

bought Ṁ25 NO

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

E.g. Border wall funds appropriation & COVID would resolve yes

@Odoacre Can you expand on the criteria?

@AndrewG Can you? I'm curious if there's a threshold. Would withdrawing permission to use ATACMS mean withdrawing support?

@AndrewEdstrom Does the pardon have to succeed legally, or does this resolve Yes in the attempt?

It resolves yes if he attempts to pardon himself. I will update the language accordingly.

It resolves yes if he attempts to pardon himself.

(Turns out I cannot update the language in the question, nor delete the second comment that I posted accidentally. Sorry!)

Ha! No worries, thanks for clarifying. BTW Typically people edit the comment to say [deleted] 🤷‍♂️

@AndrewG Can you update the question accordingly?

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