This question is intended to be comprehensive for all possible ways trump’s second term could end.
1,000People are also trading
This market is not sane. Does anyone have reasoning for why this is more than 20% likely?
Why would Trump change his mind about wanting to run for a third term? Why would there be a peaceful transfer of power in 2028, when there wasn't one in 2020? Do you think he'll just get bored of being president? Do you think he'll be hospitalized, and not try to hold onto power from his hospital bed? Do you think he will say "lol jk" if his base gets too yippy? Will he have a religious experience that fundamentally changes his priorities?
Surely Manifold users are more insightful on average than the US electorate. Regardless of whether you like or dislike Trump, what is your modal reason for why this is the modal result?
Can you clarify how you would handle the case where Trump resigns (voluntarily or under pressure) before the end of his term? Does this fall into "Declines to run a third time and steps down", or "Other"?
In addition, what would need to happen to trigger "impeached"? If Trump is impeached by the House but resigns without being convicted by the Senate, would that count as "impeached"? What if articles of impeachment are brought but he resigns before being formally impeached by the House?
@MarnixV would you prefer to make a specific answer for that case, and if so, how would you word it?
@lalaithion I think it's good to add, since I've hear multiple news outlets talk about it. The reason is that he's constitutionally prohibited to be elected a 3rd time, but this way he could be president again without being elected. Maybe:
"His running mate is elected president and steps down/dies, making Trump president (without being elected)."