@Marnix Gaetz has withdrawn... But it's not Trump's term yet.

More to come for sure.

I propose the following additional answer:

>= 1000 people die as a result of a nuclear weapon detonation

@AlexBokov highly likely to correlate with billions also dying similarly, which has a significant likelihood of including the traders, distorting the profit incentives of the market, leading to a falsely low market probability

I propose the following additional answer:

2% milk >= $2 a gallon and <= $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/musk-and-ramaswamy-the-doge-plan-to-reform-government-supreme-court-guidance-end-executive-power-grab-fa51c020?st=d543P9

Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome:

@Phill Wny do you reckon this is so low?

@WesReisen low liquidity market, you can move it by like 40% with 100 mana

@Phill how does that cause it to be low?

@WesReisen well it moves so much on each new trade that it just represents the opinion of the last person trading basically

@Phill Ah. I see.

@Phill doesn't each trade add to the liquidity?

@TheAllMemeingEye not anymore. before the pivot manifold printed a LOT of mana by adding liquidity to the market with each new trader but not so anymore

@Bayesian right, I forgot that Manifold uses an insanely complicated pair production and variable conservation mechanism to determine odds rather than straightforward total shares proportions

@Bayesian Do you know if there documentation about this I can access?

@jks hmmm I think the changes involved are in the updates channel of the manifold discord but other than that I'm not sure, there might be that I'm not aware of

@Phill wdym by “diplomatic relations”?

@WesReisen this has a official definition: https://diplomacy.state.gov/encyclopedia/breaking-relations/#:~:text=The%20formal%20act%20of%20severing,only%20done%20under%20severe%20situations

Can be stated as such by the government directly or indirectly by closing one's diplomatic mission, and demanding the other country do the same. Obviously only counts for this bet it there are existing dimplomatic relations beforehand

@SteveSokolowski elected as in wins the next primary and general election after Donald Trump or elected as in Trump dies and he takes over?

@Enlil will black people committing assault and looting stores be considered protest? Sad we have to ask this but you know we do

@FriendlyMerc IMO the difference will be somewhat subjective. Here in Portland during BLM unrest the vast majority of people involved were peaceful, several of them people I used to work with. However, obviously not everyone was. In fact it seems like we have a small group of shitheads who come out at every protest to vandalize stuff. IMO if the majority is peaceful it's a protest. Otherwise it's a riot. It might also depend on who is the target of the violence. Is it indiscriminately used against everyone in the larger group or only against the people who vandalize stuff or become violent themselves?

@FriendlyMerc Bro…

@FriendlyMerc why did you feel the need to specify the race? The comment is otherwise a valid question but that reeks of fash dogwhistling

@Rolledupaces Does this resolve YES if Gaetz is appointed by recess, or only if his appointment is confirmed by the Senate?

What is the max amount of the options on Manifold these days?

@TheWabiSabi 200