@Symmetry err... does this have a specific definition?

@TheAllMemeingEye I don't know, I'm not American.

@Symmetry But you added the option... What does it mean?

@ProjectVictory It will resonate with the entire nation. Like 9/11.

Declare that George Floyd was a city slicker and he can’t sneed.

@dcd sneed? Is that a word?

@TheAllMemeingEye The sign is a subtle joke. The shop is called "Sneed's Feed & Seed", where feed and seed both end in the sound "-eed", thus rhyming with the name of the owner, Sneed. The sign says that the shop was "Formerly Chuck's", implying that the two words beginning with "F" and "S" would have ended with "-uck", rhyming with "Chuck".

@dcd damn 👀

@Bayesian Resolves NO

@NivlacM Do you live in California?

@Bayesian this one can be resolved

He was pardoned by Biden

@FergusArgyll Yes, and it was criminal, but there is still a chance that scotus overturns the pardons, and perhaps there are non-criminal types investigation?

@skibidist SCOTUS cannot overturn a pardon. I assume investigated means criminally investigated, I'd like some clarification I guess, @Bayesian

@FergusArgyll Manifold says there's 20% it will https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-scotus-strike-down-the-preempt

Some reporting that Trump signed an EO leaving World Health Organization.

I don't know the law to know whether that is enough to actually cause the U.S. to leave.

@Marnix @creator TSLA started the term over $400/share, how is this being interpreted? Does that mean it's a YES already? Or does it have to pass below $400?

@skibidist Resolves YES. He just signed the executive order

@Marnix how exactly are we defining The New Norm here?

@TheAllMemeingEye The New Norm ain't the same as the old norm (it's a shitty anti-woke web series on X)

@Marnix ah thanks 👍

What’s predictable is preventable.

@Predictor not always, I can predict that the universe will continue to exist tomorrow, but I can't prevent it, for most of us it's similarly impossible to stop most of the bad things Trump might do

@Bayesian @Krantz can we get some ideas on what it takes for a YES resolution on Trumps "discloses Aliens are real"? The question is ramping up quite heavy investments.

Is it enough with an offhand statement? Does it have to be certainty/conviction, or just a "more likely than not" leaning statement? Is any evidence presented needed, or is a statement without backing enough?

@HenriThunberg It would require an official statement. It doesn't necessarily require full evidence to be declassified nor a majority of the public to believe it. It does however need to be an official position held by the administration backed by certainty/conviction.

i’ll let krantz clarify the meaing as long as it seems reasonable and close to the spirit of the market. I’ll add that presumably this refers to the trump saying aliens we ve somehow interacted with or that visited earth are real, not ones 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe or wtv

@Bayesian Correct. The claim would need to include some sort of admission that covert military programs have recovered/ interacted with vehicles and non-human lifeforms. For example, if Trump cooberated the public claims made by individuals like Steven Greer or Daniel Sheehan, that would count.

If he said their claims are interesting, plausible, and will be investigated further, that would not meet the criteria.

Trump discloses Aliens are real. (interacted with humans / we found alien tech / etc.)

are you happy with this edit? @Krantz

@Bayesian @Krantz awesome, thanks both!