What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
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Plus
77
Ṁ15k
2029
94%
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
90%
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
88%
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
80%
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
80%
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
79%
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
78%
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
76%
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
74%
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
74%
Someone in Trumps family runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
73%
Fair elections in 2028
71%
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
71%
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
69%
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
67%
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
67%
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
58%
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
57%
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
53%
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
52%
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Add your own answers!

Unless otherwise specified:
"Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear.

I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't fit

Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution.

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Russo-Ukrainian War ends

@Quillist

Resolution criteria?

According to wikipedia Russo-Ukraine war has been ongoing since 2014 non-stop with russian backed rebel groups fighting in the Dombas

Fair elections in 2028

@Bayesian Can we get some clarification on the resolution criteria on this?

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

@Phill I feel like this simply wouldn't fly. I acknowledge that it's only a stone throw's away from overturning Roe v. Wade, but pro-lifers are at least able to feign moral superiority on that issue (albeit only due to lacking in moral nuance). On gay marriage, I feel like a significantly smaller percentage of the electorate is going to be willing to take away people's rights simply because they find same-sex couples kind of icky. Contrary to what the religious far right might believe, respecting gay people is not some small niche of wokeism. And that's to say nothing of the votes that would flip due to being personally affected.

Moreover, I don't think Trump is a huge closet homophobe, and I suspect he probably doesn't want to be regarded as one, either.

@NBAP I agree, I don't think Trump cares at all, 71% of Americans are pro same-sex marriages, but we said all this a couple of years ago about abortion. I put it in there specifically because Thomas and Alito talked about revisiting Obergefell: https://time.com/6899864/same-sex-marriage-supreme-court-biden-trump

Nice market, hope we can have some laughs after this night.

I'll likely remake some of these into binary markets because they probably deserve more precision

(as can everyone else!)

@Bayesian For this, are we counting any year-long time span (oct 24, 2025 - oct 24, 2026), or within an annual year: ie (2025-2026)

bought Ṁ50 Trump creates tariff... NO

@Quillist good question, i was thinking annual year bc that's much easier to measure presumably

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