Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Plus

Ṁ5000

2028

15%

chance

ALL

Disclaimer:

[I am allowed to add/modify resolution criteria in the self evident spirit of this market during the first week of market operation as people comment to check my work and stress test resolution criteria with hypotheticals. Bet with caution during this time. This bracketed text will be edited out after 1 week.] I am not allowed to bet in this market in case of extenuating circumstances requiring me to make an executive decision for resolution.

Resolution Criteria:

Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day. If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days. (These dates were calculated by Googling "42 months from Jan 20 2025" and "43 months from Jan 20 2025" and subtracting one day from the last date to still be considered the 42nd month.)

If Trump is inaugurated POTUS and stops being POTUS for any length of time or ceases to be as a person during the market window, then market resolves YES.

If Trump is inaugurated POTUS and the office of POTUS ceases to be during the market window, then market resolves YES.
If Trump is inaugurated POTUS and the nation of the United States of America ceases to be recognized by the UN or contains fewer than the set of all constituent States that existed at time of inauguration during the market window, then market resolves YES. (He can't be President of the United States if they aren't united.)

If Trump is not inaugurated POTUS by March 1, 2025, then market resolves NO.

If the office of POTUS somehow doesn't exist by Jan 21, 2025, then market resolves NO. This criteria assumes no moment of discontinuity of the office of POTUS as it is transferred from one person to another.