Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100" market decline to 10% by the end of 2024?
Basic
10
Ṁ274Dec 31
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@BenjaminIkuta that would mean this is a 'one touch' and already triggered, since the reference contract is currently trading at 15%
@AlexanderLeCampbell By "reach 10%" I mean "decline to reach 10%", not "increase to reach 10%", since it was already above 10% when I made the market.
@BenjaminIkuta That's not the usual understanding of "reach", might want to change the title to "decline"
Related questions
Related questions
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
13% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
8% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
12% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
7% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2025?
1% chance
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
19% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2600?
45% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2150?
12% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 3100?
36% chance