Venezuela is holding a presidential election in 2024, the winner of which will begin a new presidential term on 10 January 2025.
If Maduro is president at the end of that day (e.g. he is inaugurated for another term), this question resolves YES. If he isn't president at the end of that day, it resolves NO.
Nicolás Maduro has been Venezuela's president since 2013. Will Maduro be president on 10 January 2025?
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3.00Exclusive | In Secret Talks, U.S. Offers Amnesty to Venezuela’s Maduro for Ceding Power - WSJ
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US mulls to pardon Venezuela's Maduro in a bid to push him out of power: Report – Firstpost
This question resolves at 11:59 PM 10 Jan 2025.
10 Jan is the constitutional starting date for the next six year term of the Venezuelan presidency. If another person (other than Maduro) were to be inaugurated president in a constitutionally normal manner, it would happen on that day.
If Maduro is president at the end of that day (e.g. he is inaugurated for another term), this question resolves YES. If he isn't president at the end of that day, it resolves NO.
Exit poll shows 64% to 31% lead for Gonzalez over Maduro: https://x.com/WSJForero/status/1817660419630338539
Venezuela is holding elections on Sunday. An opposition candidate, Edmundo González, is being allowed to run and polling shows him far in the lead. Although Maduro could rig the vote, some commentators seem to think there is a chance this election will spell the end of Maduro's rule.
FT: “The best-case scenario is that the government pauses the count in the event of an opposition victory, and starts negotiating,” said one Venezuelan with deep knowledge of the election system.
Catham House: Three post-election scenarios include: A Maduro victory ... Vote-count manipulation or theft ... The opposition wins. ... recent secret conversations with the US and foreign governments and the Venezuelan government are attempting to facilitate that path for change. A refusal by Maduro to accept the elections could also provoke splits inside his government, including within the military, which could lead to regime collapse and a transition.
The Hill Times: There have been plenty of cases where a ruler with dictatorial power just gave up and handed power over to the democratic majority—Chile in 1988, Russia in 1991, South Africa in 1994—and yet people are always surprised when it actually happens. ... I can’t read Maduro’s mind, but I've spent a lot of time interviewing key players in Soviet Russia and later in apartheid South Africa when those regimes were gradually, half-unwittingly deciding to leave power voluntarily. Maduro’s erratic movement towards what may finally be an acceptance of defeat reminds me of the behaviours I was seeing then.