Will the Conservatives win at least 40% of the vote in Canada's next federal election?
Plus
27
Ṁ23542025
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Canada's parliament must have an election on or before 20 October 2025. The Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre currently poll above Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party, approaching 40% as of the time this question was written.
Will the Conservative Party win 40% of the vote, or more, in the next Canadian federal election?
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the Conservative Party of Canada win a parliamentary supermajority in next federal election?
24% chance
(Canada) Will the Liberals poll within 10 points of the Conservatives before next Federal Election?
37% chance
Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?
15% chance
Will the Conservative Party of Canada form a Majority Government after the 45th Canadian Federal Election?
93% chance
Will the NDP lose seats in Canada's next federal election? (Oct 2025 or earlier)
61% chance
Will the NDP poll higher than the Liberals at any point before the next Canadian federal election?
48% chance
Which Canadian political party will win the 2nd most seats in next federal election?
Which of these parties will gain seats in the next 2025 Canadian election?
How many seats will the Conservative Party win at the next election?
Will the next federal Canadian election go to the liberals?
13% chance