Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 2028, at least one U.S. citizen is confirmed to have been detained in El Salvador's Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT). The person must have been a citizen at the time that they were detained; if they lost their citizenship then it does not count. The confirmation must come from credible news sources or official government statements. If no such detention is confirmed by the end of 2028, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

The Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) is a maximum-security prison in Tecoluca, El Salvador, inaugurated in January 2023. With a capacity of 40,000 inmates, it is one of the largest prisons in Latin America. CECOT was established as part of President Nayib Bukele's aggressive campaign against gang violence, which has led to the incarceration of tens of thousands of alleged gang members. (en.wikipedia.org)

In recent developments, the U.S. government has explored the possibility of transferring certain individuals, including U.S. citizens, to foreign prisons like CECOT. In April 2025, President Donald Trump suggested sending American citizens convicted of violent crimes to El Salvador's prisons, raising significant legal and human rights concerns. (reuters.com) Additionally, the case of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, a Maryland resident mistakenly deported to El Salvador and detained in CECOT, has drawn considerable attention. Despite U.S. court orders for his return, El Salvador's government has refused to release him. (apnews.com)