Will a Marvel movie reach $1 billion at the box office before the end of 2025? | Manifold

Will a Marvel movie reach $1 billion at the box office before the end of 2025?

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resolved Aug 11

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YES

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Condition is the movie is released before the end of 2025. If released late 2025 and it achieves $1 billion in 2026, this will resolve YES.

This includes Spiderman MCU movies, but not spider verse movies that aren't a Spiderman led movie

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I think Deadpool & Wolverine hype has pretty good chance of breaking $1b

Per the current release schedule, the options would be as follows:

Deadpool 3 (July 26, 2024)
Captain America: Brave New World (February 14, 2025)
Fantastic Four (May 2, 2025)
Thunderbolts (July 25, 2025)
Blade (November 7, 2025)

Honestly, I think Deadpool 3 may take it, if not Fantastic Four or Captain America could do it. A billion dollars is less money every year.

Are you including the Marvel Spider-Man films here (No Way Home)? How about Sony Marvel (Spider-Verse, Madame Web)?

@mattyb Spiderman movies in MCU YES, non Spiderman centred spider verse movies - NO.

If Spiderman appears in a Sony spider verse movie that isn't a Spider-Man movie, NO

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