The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducts a quarterly survey of professional economic forecasters.

The survey is conducted immediately following the Bureau of Economic Analysis issuing its advance GDP estimate for the previous quarter (expected: Apr 30th) and the deadline for responses is about ten days later. Thus forecasts for the Q2 survey are expected to be made between Apr 30th and ~May 10th. The FAQ says that

Most panelists submit their projections over the few days leading up to and including the deadline.

Will the median forecast for real GDP in the 2025 Q2 survey (expected to be released on May 16th) include at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the first such quarter being in 2025?

For Q1 2025, the BEA's advance GDP estimate (expected: Apr 30th) will be used. Thus this market depends on the Q1 advance estimate and the median forecast for Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025, and Q1 2026.

For simplicity, the headline median real GDP growth forecast figures, reported as annualised rates rounded to one decimal place will be used. Thus very small negative growth, insufficient to round to -0.1%, will not count.

This is to obviate the need to dive into the raw data and compute medians ourselves, which is fraught ("median" does not have a single definition).

For consistency, the headline annualised real GPD growth rate from the BEA advance estimate for Q1 will also be used as reported to one decimal place.

For example, the median forecast for GDP growth in the 2025 Q1 survey, released on Feb 14th, is positive for all quarters in 2025 and Q1 2026, and as such the median forecast as of that survey is "no recession" under the "two quarters negative growth" definition.