Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

220

10kṀ95k

2026

56%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Note that this is not resolved based on NBER, the official definition of recession in the US (see here for context).

(Yes, there are already questions on this but their specifications were worse imo)

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opened a Ṁ7,500 NO at 59% order

Limit order of 7500 59% NO. Expiring tonight.

what is the difference between a provisional resolution and a final resolution?

@No_uh provisional just means it can be changed later. If the initial estimates indicate e.g. recession then the market can resolve without waiting many months for the later estimates. But estimates can and are revised by large amounts sometimes, and so if the later estimates indicate no recession then the resolution would be updated.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Q1 2025 looking like a lock for negative growth

bought Ṁ30 YES

There are high chances of a recession in the United States, due to some major factors, including the upcoming US Presidential Elections 2024 being one of them.