Resolves YES if by the end of 2026, NBER determines that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 (in other words, if they announce a business cycle peak occurred during 2024). Resolves NO otherwise.
For context on how NBER determines recessions, see https://manifold.markets/jack/did-the-us-officially-enter-a-reces
Related:
Get Ṁ600 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Recession in 2024?
12% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
42% chance
US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
21% chance
Will the US economy have a recession in 2024?
15% chance
Will the US officially enter a recession in 2023? (Announcement by NBER)
4% chance
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
36% chance
If Biden wins, will the US enter a recession before 2027?
47% chance
Will the UK enter a recession during 2024?
23% chance
US Recession in 2025?
34% chance