1,000
3.00https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/emmett-shear-still-ceo-by-end-of-da#0cyMrh9dFUu9KyB4Ddlu
We got a response from Shear suggesting that a similiar market be N/Aed.
@oh Why not wait a bit?
The tweets seem clear to me on 22nd he was coming back but details to sort out were going to take time. On 30th is back. While not guaranteed that it was on 30th it seem highly likely that it was 30th or day or two before that.
@ChristopherRandles There’s precedent to N/A this type of question as per Joshua’s comment and link. Would waiting to resolve facilitate getting a better answer?
@oh That seems to indicate Emmett Shear thinks it is unclear when he ceased to be CEO. The time of appointment of Sam Altman may be a lot clearer. The two time do not have to be the same there can be a period when there isn't anyone formally appointed or it is unclear if there is a CEO. As that indicated there is a period when it is unclear whether anyone is CEO that makes it more likely if not certain that Sam Altman wasn't CEO until after 23rd.
Hey all - please signal boost my question to OpenAI so we can get a real answer:
The creator sadly deleted their account @connorwilliams97
I see you chose to N/A this....some people think this question does have an answer that can be found out.
I am going to tentatively reopen this for the time being. If it turns out we cannot figure out an answer, we can N/A it again later. I think your question is well defined enough that someone should be able to eventually present a case for it.
How about we put a date at 22 December 2023 and if no one can show it by then, we N/A?
@Eliza thanks for taking this on. Here is my reason for why this should be closed as "No". I am interested to hear from others as well. The latest information (yesterday, 11/29) we have says:
"Message from Sam to the company
I am returning to OpenAI as CEO. Mira will return to her role as CTO. The new initial board will consist of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D’Angelo."
Everything is phrased in future tense, as if it is going to happen (agreement reached) but has not happened yet. It's clear that all the documents have not been signed and taken force. Since Sam is still not CEO, he definitely was not CEO on 11/22. If he was CEO, the press release would say "I am delighted to be back at OpenAI as CEO". It clearly says that he will be CEO in the future.
I think it makes sense to wait for even clearer evidence, because Yes bettors may not consider this enough. But we have a very clear indication of the answer here.
https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board
@supportline What part of
OpenAI and Altman are continuing to determine the exact terms of his reinstatement, the company said in their post on X: "We are collaborating to figure out the details."
make you think it was completed and done?
What I’m hearing is that if the appointment was complete by end of day - all the legal i’s dotted and t’s crossed, but we don’t find out about it today, this will resolve yes when it’s confirmed that it was completed today. Connor will wait to resolve until we have info either way. This seems like the right approach to me
@DanMan314 either, if it is clear and undisputed. I will not resolve immediately at the end of the day; I plan to check the news in the morning and proceed from there. Basically, if Sam Altman was CEO again by Nov 22 at 11:59pm PST, this will resolve YES regardless of whether this was immediately publicly known at the time.
@connorwilliams97 So are you saying: if it is clearly announced but it later becomes clear that this was announced as 'what is going to happen' but he isn't actually formally appointed until the next day or later then it resolves yes?
"We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo. We are collaborating to figure out the details. Thank you so much for your patience through this."
https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1727206187077370115
This seems clear it hadn't happened at that time even if various media are reporting as if he is already back.
Sounds like they could still be working out the details and asking for patience sounds like it could take more than 24 hours to me.
@ChristopherRandles no, it means if he was formally appointed by that time it resolves YES even if it is not known publicly yet at that time.
@connorwilliams97 I'm not sure I understand your definition of "formally appointed".
Also, in general I personally advocate for closing markets when discussing resolution criteria like this, then re-opening them for trading after the conversation. Would you be willing to do that?