After the election, I will compare the total campaign funding raised by all presidential candidates in 2024 and in 2020.
I will obtain the percentage growth by looking at the difference between these two numbers and see what proportion of 2020 that difference is. That is:
(total_2024 - total_2020) / total_2020 * 100
The lower bounds of the intervals in the answers available are closed, where as the upper ones are open. For instance, if the result is exactly 25%, then the answer selected will be "25% - 50%".
I will be using Open Secrets
https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race
I understand this site will probably not be up to date, but I do not expect that lag to be significant so as to produce different results, let me know if you have a better source that does not require manipulating tables.
In 2020, the presidential candidates raised $3,977.4 million.
At the time this market opened, the 2024 race had raised $229.9 million.
This market closes the day after the general election.
1,000
3.00The number which I specify I would use to calculate the result does not agree with the amounts each candidate raised even by committee or by outside means. This error is also there in 2020 and I apologize for not checking. Here are my options:
- Use the values as listed ($3,977.4 million for 2020 and $1,637.7 million for 2024). This would yield "Will not grow" as a result. This is only @Clement, who may have caught my error and was hoping I'd stick to my criteria so I'm personally paying them out.
- Calculate the values by adding the numbers listed below. I could use all the numbers (committee and outside) or only committee. Unfortunately, none of these sums match the values listed at the top of the page. I'm choosing to go with the full amount since it is the amount that is closest to the listed value (in the case of 2020).
Therefore, the amount that was raised in 2020 by presidential candidate committees was $2,715,141,163 and in 2024 it was $2,863,203,073.
This means there was a growth of $148,061,910 which is roughly a 5.5% increase from the amount raised in 2020.
@Siebe I will be using the number that is shown on the link in the following statement:
"Amount raised by candidates, so far: $1,525.6 million"
This number in previous elections was the sum of money raised by candidate committees and of money raised outside them.
@costlySignal thanks. I don't understand how they reach that number. It's neither the sum of the candidate committees (that's like 1.3B) nor the sum including outside money (which is >2.5B)
@Siebe Yes, it seems that for 2024 that hasn't been updated. Hopefully it'll be resolved by the deadline.