I currently feel like there are several crises on basically every front. The federal government is making attacks on trans rights one of their top priorities; AI companies are continuing to race to the singularity; and a bird flu pandemic or WW3 both feel like distinct possibilities.
This market resolves YES if I no longer feel like I'm in significant danger at resolution time. It resolves NO if I still feel like things are at a crisis point. If I am unable to answer this question due to being dead or imprisoned due to one of the crises or any other reason, this market should resolve NO.
This is a subjective market, so I will not trade. Feel free to ask questions in the comments below, but I may not answer them if they're too personal. Market participants are encouraged to take actions to improve the probability that this question resolves YES.
1,000
3.00I reckon dems will win 2028 and AI alignment will be practically solved by then and trans rights will be more respected than they are today and there won't be WW3 nor a pandemic nor will you die or come close to that and the risk will mostly be totalitarian government caused by some ASI but like the risk will have decreased compared to your credences in 2024. but a lot of that hinges on trump not messing things up too much while he has the power to ig
⬆ This guy is a pretty great trader -- 1.3 million mana in profit and currently ranked #1 in the Master's league. Calls himself a "Bayesian" but seems indistinguishable from a modern oracle. I'd listen to him; he's probably right.
