Will Polish Americans vote for the winner of the Presidential Election?
Basic
11
Ṁ684Jan 1
98%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Polish-American voting bloc has a strong track record of voting for the winner of presidential elections: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results
Resolves YES iff ≥50% of votes cast by Polish Americans in the 2024 US Presidential Election are cast for the winner. To be established by polling / studies, e.g. from the sources currently referenced in the lined wikipedia page. I will use my best judgement and consult with the manifold community on resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@PlainBG it's definitely possible imo. The most recent data cited by Wikipedia are post-election polling
Related questions
Related questions
Who will win the 2025 Polish presidential election?
Who will win 2025 Polish presidential election?
Will the winner of the POTUS election win... [add answers]?
[POLAND] Will the winner of presidential elections in 2025 get less than 51% of votes in the runoff?
34% chance
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the 2025 presidential elections in Poland?
45% chance
Candidate from which Party will become the next president of Poland in 2025?
Who will win the next parliamentary election in Poland?
Will the 2024 US Presidential candidate who wins Pennsylvania also win the election?
99% chance
Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?
66% chance
Poland: KO candidate in the presidential elections