Here are the polls about the most "significant" announcements. I also included a question about Sora vs. o1 for my own curiosity, since those were about neck-and-neck throughout the course of the market.

/CDBiddulph/which-was-more-significant-the-o1-a
/CDBiddulph/which-was-more-significant-the-sora-pLdhQuRyLZ
/CDBiddulph/which-was-more-significant-the-laun
Bonus:
/CDBiddulph/which-was-more-significant-the-sora

I forgot to mention the non-o3 announcements of the 12 days of OpenAI in my poll - oops! Hopefully no one thought 1-800-CHATGPT was more significant than ChatGPT itself 😄

Marcus seems impressed: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/o3-agi-the-art-of-the-demo-and-what

@Usaar33 I ran this article through ChatGPT and it said it was a negative sentiment

@dominic this is going to be prompt and interpretation specific. Entire article I can see being negative sentiment (and Chatgpt agrees) but the are positive reactions within it. Chatgpt acknowledges there is "something he reacted positively to" and recommends resolving yes

@Usaar33 Yeah, I might just resolve this one N/A

@Usaar33 I think we disagree on the domain for this question. I didn't bet on this, but I interpreted "something" as an actual product, like o3.

You could say that Gary Marcus reacted positively to "o3's performance on the ARC benchmark", but I wouldn't have counted that as one of the possible "somethings".

@TimothyJohnson5c16 This was also my intuition fwiw

“o1 and/or o1-mini fine tuning” is currently trading at 4%, but was revealed waaaay back on December 6: https://x.com/openai/status/1865136373491208674

Gary Marcus reacted negatively to the o3 demo according to ChatGPT (I pasted in his article). If anyone can find an example of a more positive reaction that he had I'll look at that too, but I haven't found anything yet

@dominic

@mathvc Even if that is a sentence he actually said, I am sure it's not very hard to find a positive sentence in his article. But I don't think it's fair to take it out of context and not analyze his full reaction to each thing.

@dominic it is not a sentence from his article. It is a separate tweet he made.

@mathvc Yeah, this particular tweet might get analyzed as positive. But it's a stretch to take one mildly positive tweet and reasonably say "this is his reaction to o3," unless he hadn't written anything else about it.

@dominic well i would like to disagree. He has a positive reaction to an announcement of model scores on FrontierMath

This is separate from his negative reaction to o3

I'll resolve the things that didn't happen NO next week, in case of any surprise announcements.

@JaundicedBaboon This should resolve YES: https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough

Should o3 count as 1,000,000+ context length? According to the people who run ARC o3 was able to use almost 10 billion token chains of thought to solve just one problem.

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1hisp7o/o3_high_compute_costs_is_insane_3000_for_a_single/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

AGI achieved only at 1.6%? 👀

@dominic Hoping they skip to o12 to make this resolve positively

Hilarious that people seriously believe that “o3” will be released

@mathvc it says "revealed" not released, so I'm f o3 was announced then it would resolve yes

@JaundicedBaboon it won’t be revealed either

@mathvc what's makes you so sure? Are you putting your mana where your mouth is? 😄

@mathvc I only see 20 mana on NO 🦐

@mathvc there's also this standalone question for the release of o3: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-openai-release-o2-as-part-of-t

@MalachiteEagle its 60 and i already moved the market from 90% to 50% lol, do you know what is liquidity? 99% of my mana is locked in another bets, i’ll bet more when get it out of low-return markets

@mathvc they've added the loan button back

@MalachiteEagle as you wish, i added a little more to the bet and moved the probability from 90 to 28

Btw my guess for the hint “oh oh oh” is 0.00 pricing on some products

@mathvc very cool 😎 👍

@mathvc it's just some model with o in the name. no idea if it's o2, Orion, 5o, or something else

@IsaacLiu can be Orion, maybe demo of Operator, but o2/o3 makes no sense lol, they have just released o1

I think assuming OpenAI has sensible naming conventions and a predictable release schedule is fraught with peril

@mathvc maybe announcements/demos of all three? We're meant to think he's teasing o3 but he's actually teasing Orion, Operator AND o3

(three O's)

@MichaelWheatley that would be even more confusing

@MalachiteEagle i agree with you on naming conventions 💯 that’s why i think real probability is non-zero (but way below the market)

@mathvc https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1870164871289155937

@mathvc I was right!

@JaundicedBaboon ah but how much profit did you make?

@MalachiteEagle 🫡🫡 got rekt today

@mathvc happens to the best of us

@mathvc feel free to ask people (including me) for a loan in https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1194385337510797432 . it can

allow you to make much greater returns if you know something the market doesn't