Background OpenAI is currently running their "12 Days of OpenAI" event, featuring daily announcements and updates.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if OpenAI releases any of the following during their 12 Days of OpenAI event:
A signup page for o2 or o3
A limited release of o2 or o3
A full release of o2 or o3
The market will resolve NO if none of these occur.
Note that showing the capabilities of o2/o3 but not releasing any of the above would resolve No.
Update 2024-20-12 (PST): Demos or demonstrations of o2/o3 capabilities without an actual release, signup page, or limited release will resolve as NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00I am pretty uncertain how to resolve this question. COI I have a moderately sized NO position.
considerations for Yes:
- There is a limited release and sign up page for AI safety researchers
considerations for No:
- I wasn't expecting a limited release to be to such an expert group. I imagined it might be to pro users.
- I don't really think it's being released, so much as tested. Nor is the sign up page for everyone.
I would consider N/A potentially most fair bc it really is an edge case where reasonable people would disagree about whether this counts as a limited release. it would also be worth waiting to see if ai safety researchers get access in the next few days, or have to wait months for it (if months it would obviously resolve NO, if less than a week I might lean YES? but maybe still N/A idk). but plausibly that might not be publicly known
I think this is roughly 45% to happen. O1 was released very recently so on the face of it it seems very unlikely that o2/o3 would be getting teased already. But it was reported that o1 was rushed out to an extreme degree, from which it follows that a significant upgrade could be ready as soon as now.
@jim @summer_of_bliss I didn't mean to include demos. If you take issue with that I can managram you, but on expectation I think it's probably beneficial to you.