Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more High Class (YES) or more Low Class (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.
Heavily inspired from @Joshua's excellent market,
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context.
I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.
As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are High Class, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Low Class. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.
If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.
Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.
The market will close on Dec 31 2024. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.
If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES.
If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO.
It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted.
Some guidelines:
I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.
I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.
1,000
3.00At least in the U.S., not being Christian is associated with higher class, so Christianity must count as low class by the converse.
Also borne out by the income distribution: The religious group with the highest income was Jews, followed by Hindus. Atheists and agnostics were also higher than every Christian group except two. Only two non-Christian groups (nones and Buddhists) were below average, and even then, they weren't that far below it. The five lowest-income groups were all Christian groups. On top of that, almost all the highest-earning Christian groups were mainline Protestants, which are declining in number.
Income among American Catholics almost exactly matches that of all U.S. adults (or did, as of 2016). But Catholicism is also associated with a lot of high-class stuff, like cathedrals, religious art, etc.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/10/11/how-income-varies-among-u-s-religious-groups/
@PlasmaBallin They may technically be part of the upper class, but they shun the social norms of classiness e.g. professionalism, decorum
Additionally I'd like to add that I'm kind of critical of these "what do people think" markets because they're rewarded for voting for whatever has the majority, I'd like to believe people vote for what they believe but I feel like it's only partially the case and once one side has like 70% of investment to one side an a lead of say 5-2 it's not going to flip easily unless people try to move it to the other side.
I will probably avoid them from now on
@noney the first rule of Manifold is: you DO talk about Manifold. You make markets about Manifold. You poll Manifold. You can't get enough of knowing what Manifold thinks. Manifold. Manifold. Manifoldmanifoldmanifold. Manimanimani, foldfoldfold.
(It's a very long first rule.)
@noney the second rule of Manifold is https://manifold.markets/HimanshuSingh/who-will-win-the-electionwho-will-w?r=QnJ1bm9QYXJnYQ