Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?
Basic
5
Ṁ1032025
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves if and when we have a language model that generates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research in any field and is also an agent.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
19% chance
Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?
72% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
40% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
43% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
25% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
59% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
39% chance
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
38% chance