Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?
Basic
5
Ṁ1032025
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves if and when we have a language model that generates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research in any field and is also an agent.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?
51% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
55% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
40% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
50% chance
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
43% chance
Will the first AGI be a large language model?
25% chance
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
33% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
39% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
84% chance