Will the next Expert Survey on Progress in AI estimate 50% chance Full Automation of Labor after 2080?
4
90Ṁ542027
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Expert Survey on Progress in AI was a survey done by AI Impacts in 2016, 2022, and 2023. They asked participants when they expected the median time for Full Automation of Labor.
In 2016, 2022, and 2023, participants predicted 2138, 2164, and 2116, respectively for this question. Note that the times for High-Level Machine Intelligence, which arguably means roughly the same thing, are significantly sooner (2061, 2060, 2048 for the three years).
Look at Appendix B here: https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf.
I think that AI Impacts will do a survey in 2024, though I'm not certain about this.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will AI Impacts publish another Expert Survey on Progress in AI by the end of 2025?
96% chance
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2100?
57% chance
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2075?
55% chance
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2050?
52% chance
How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen
within the next 50 years?
POLL
Will AI take 50% of human jobs before 2030?
3% chance
How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen
within the next 20 years?
POLL
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
41% chance
How likely do you think it is that - full automation of labor will happen
within the next 10 years?
POLL
Will >97% of all jobs be fully automated before the year 2075?
61% chance