Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024?
➕
Plus
25
Ṁ7270
Jan 1
49%
chance

The disaster can be natural or human-caused, and can happen anywhere in the world. It can be a series of events, as long as the events are related (e.g. a series of tornadoes in a region, a hurricane that causes flooding, etc.).

This question will resolve using the List of Disasters by Cost Wikipedia Article. To resolve "yes" there must be at least 2 citations from reputable sources verifying the number.

The question will resolve "no" on January 1, 2025 if there is no entry on the list between July 17, 2024 and December 31, 2024.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

I'd like to clarify the note on citations. Only one source can be from the media. The other source must be from the government, an NGO, a university, or some other authoritative source.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules