Depends on what kind of AGI we are talking about.

Current LLMs have very much finite market value, but you can argue they are

Somewhat general: can solve a wide range of tasks compared to previous generations of RNNs.

Somewhat intelligent: they can code, automate some tasks, play some games and do other stuff generally associated with mental tasks.

Are they AGI? In the weakest possible sense, Yes, but I doubt that's what the question is about.

*AGI workers* that can automate all human tasks.

Should have a value close to the value of the world's job market, but only assuming it's significantly cheaper than hiring a person.

It is what some people mean by AGI, but the definition is still vague. What about jobs that require manual labor? Do we require physical capabilities as a prerequisite for intelligence? But if all jobs are replaced, won't we have economic collapse as unemployment climbes to over 50%? I don't think current financial system is equipped for not having human workers.

*ASI* that essentially controls the human world, outperforming humans on all imaginable mental tasks. We are deep into science fiction here. Defining a price for such a thing is kinda arrogant, that assumes you can own and control something much smarter than yourself. Will we still have capitalism if we're ruled by machine gods? Will humans still exist? I don't think asking about market value is the appropriate question here.

The value of anything can't be more than the sum total value of all assets in the world, which is about $583 trillion. If you account for market impact, we can round that up to $1 quadrillion.

The value of AGI is infinite. The value of a market without AGI is also infinite in the long term. It just takes slower to achieve the same.

@SimoneRomeo You can say that about any asset, the value is "infinite" over a long term. That doesn't mean assets don't have certain finite values.

@spiderduckpig that's correct. Assets have finite values only if you mention a time frame. This market doesn't so I think the only right answer is infinite

@SimoneRomeo Very frequently in the English language (& presumably others), something not being mentioned is therefore ambiguous. In the case of this market, the absence of an explicit mention of time frame means that it's unclear whether a time frame is meant to be included or not.

That being said, time discounting means that infinite value isn't really a thing under most economic analyses.

@DavidHiggs indeed, my comment was semi serious. This question is so abstract that there's no objective way to answer it. Luckily it's a poll, not a market, so we can simply answer on vibes and it has no consequence.

I find this question slightly confusing because I'm not sure what counterfactual to compare sudden AGI with. The actual world that will eventually get AGI anyways in ~5-10 years?

If AGI occurred today, and GDP growth climbed up to transformative levels (~30%), but with a slow takeoff according to relatively conservative economic assumptions (~5 years), then world GDP would grow by several times before my median timeline for AGI arrives. Applying a modest, but slightly increasing over time (as overall growth sky-rockets) discount rate, gets a bit over $100T of expected NPV added by AGI now instead of waiting for it to be created in the actual world.

This seems like an underestimate of the real value of AGI, but not necessarily a full order of magnitude, so I picked the middle option. I could easily imagine being argued into a larger value, less easily a lower one.

Someone give me context; what things are on the order of 10^18 dollars (and what kind of $? current usd? y2000 usd?)

@ArtimisFowl present world wealth is of the order of ~10^3 T usd = 10^15 usd

there is ~10^16 watts of solar power falling on Earth annually

humans use 10^13 watts per year

so if value is proportional to energy consumption, going to 10^18 dollar wealth would be like becoming Kardashev level 1 civilization