Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2025-07-01?
➕
Plus
7
Ṁ926
2025
75%
chance

Testosterone must be legal federally, legal in at least one state, and available with a level of inconvenience not too far above present. (It's a controlled substance and requires a mental health professional to approve.)

YES if it requires lying to doctors a little bit (pretending to be binary, for instance). NO if there are surgical requirements or "real life experience" requirements or other actually difficult things to lie about, with "just about every" doctor you can find.

NO if it's legal to obtain, but it's illegal to actually use, or doctors are too worried about getting sued to proscribe it, or another reason that it's not practically available.

Also YES if it is very easy to synthesize at home and either legal to do so or very easy to stay out of trouble.

This question is only regarding adults over 18.

Because some of the criteria are subjective, I will not trade in this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

How does this resolve if it's practically impossible to get through normal means but DIY HRT is still just as easy to find and stay out of trouble? Afaik it's never been possible to synthesize at home not sure if that's a reference to diy

@HarrisonDorn You're saying that it's already easy to find and stay out of trouble? (And safe; definitely not contaminated?) I'm surprised by that, and would generally be pretty reluctant to buy anything illegally, if that informs your impression of what I consider to be available. But it's not impossible that I might consider DIY to be available, if it was really easy and safe. That probably means not using the darknet and not interacting with a drug dealer.

I agree that it's not currently feasible to synthesize testosterone at home. Maybe technology will improve by the resolution of this market! (Or by the resolution of my similar markets with dates farther in the future.)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules